#1 Criteria
The coin must be able to grow 1500x without outstripping the global economy or anything comparable. For points of comparison.
Global GDP in 2020 is estimated to be $84 trillion (down from $87.5 in 2019 because of COVID).
The total value of gold globally is $7.5 trillion.
The world’s most valuable company is Saudi Aramco at $2.458 trillion, followed by Apple at $2.213 trillion.
To make this reasonable, let's set criterion 1 as follows
Criterion 1: the coin must not exceed $2.5 trillion in market capitalization.
Since the coin has to grow to a massive userbase, it must additionally have one of the two following characteristics.
First-mover status in the kind of token it is
Ecosystem advantage.
By “ecosystem” advantage, I mean that supports a lot of other applications or interacts with a lot of other applications. In that sense, it’s like Ethereum, which is a platform for 90% of the alt-coins in existence. There’s a reason why YouTube is much larger than any of its most famous stars.
And with those criteria, here is what you get …
#2 Nothing in the Top 25 Qualifies
Bitcoin has just over $1 trillion in value. For it to hit gold’s value, it can only grow 7.5x from here. For it to hit the value of the world’s entire GDP, it can only grow 84x.
Here’s a quick look at the market capitalizations of the top 27 coins.
You’ll notice that Cosmos ($ATOM) comes in at #27 with a market cap (= the price of 1 coin x the total number of coins in existence) at just shy of $3.9B.
If $ATOM were to do 1500x, its market cap would be $5850 billion, or $5.85 trillion. That is just smaller than the value of all the world’s gold but more than 2x the world’s most valuable company.
In fact, Harmony ($ONE) is the first coin with a present market cap that, if it did 1500x, would still be less than $2.5 trillion. It is ranked #57!
#3 Five Picks in The Top 100
Because all of the projects in the top 100–50 are still very incipient, you cannot be sure that any one of them will survive.
If you want to do this sensibly, then, you’ll need to divide your trade into 5 separate buys and hope that 1 of the five coins makes it. The others, you’ll assume, just fizzle out and your investment in them goes to nothing!
That works out just fine, though, because if you invest $5000, and $1,000 of that goes to $1,500,000, then your $4000 loss is meaningless.
Here are some candidates that could meet the rest of the criteria. The numbers reflect market cap size, since I think they are all equally (un)likely to do 1500x.
MATIC (Polygon) is a scaling coin that will prove crucial if Ethereum is ever going to hit 5,000 transactions per second. It allows for what is called optimistic rollup. So basically, this is a bet on Ethereum succeeding long term.
BAT, an advertisement coin that incentivizes smart ads and uses the Brave browser.
HOT (Holo) is a non-blockchain coin that serves as a bridge between the internet and D’apps built on Holo network. This is a first mover, but may also be co-opted by Ethereum developers.
STX (Stacks) brings a framework like Ethereum’s smart contracts and distributed app (D’app) idea to Bitcoin. I think this is one of the ways Bitcoin might live on, since it is not itself a very functional coin.
YFI (Yearn Finance) allows users to yield farm with efficiency. It is built on the Ethereum platform and has yet to see a big pump this year.
Concluding Thoughts
Now you know what you have to look for to get 1500x with coins. It’s hard.
I think a better way to get 1500x is to look at the NFT market. It is exploding and it’s relatively simpler.
Just try to buy something that is The World’s First X. The CryptoPunks, for example, will all be worth millions. Even the crappy ones, since they are a part of history. They are among the world’s first NFTs ever minted.
Aim for other worlds first NFTs and you should be able to pick up an NFT worth about $1000 now, but which will be worth $1,500,000 in the next bull run.
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